How we read the market.
Our internal read on the U.S. economy, equity markets, and key sectors. Not predictions, positioning. The indicator lights show our current bias and are reviewed when we publish, not in real time. 90-day horizon.
The economy, in six signals.
Growth is holding up, inflation is sticky in services but tame in goods, and the Fed has started cutting. Net read: constructive, with one eye on the long end of the curve.
| Signal | Indicator | Latest | Stance | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. GDP Growth | — | Constructive | Resilient. Growth holding despite rates. Consumer doing the heavy lifting. | |
CPI Inflation | — | Neutral | Watching. Goods tame, services hot. Last mile is the hard one. | |
Unemployment Rate | — | Constructive | Healthy. Softening but not breaking. Wage growth normalizing. | |
Fed Funds Rate | — | Neutral | Easing. Two more cuts priced. Path matters more than pace. | |
10Y Treasury Yield | — | Neutral | Mixed. Long end stickier than expected. Term premium creeping back. | |
Consumer Sentiment | — | Constructive | Improving. Confidence rebuilding as the rate path clarifies. Spending follows. |
Equities: extended, but supported.
Earnings are doing the work, breadth is improving, and volatility is cheap to hedge against. We're trimming winners, not exiting them.
| Signal | Indicator | Latest | Stance | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | — | Constructive | Extended but supported. Earnings supportive. Valuations elevated. Trim winners. | |
Nasdaq 100 | — | Neutral | Concentrated. Mega-cap tech doing the heavy lifting. Breadth is the watch-out. | |
Russell 2000 | — | Constructive | Catching up. Small caps benefit most from rate cuts. Quality screen still required. | |
VIX Volatility | — | Constructive | Calm. Cheap to hedge. We're buying protection while the market sleeps. | |
Earnings Revisions | — | Constructive | Supportive. Margins expanding. Forward estimates moving higher. | |
Market Breadth % > 200D MA | — | Neutral | Improving. Participation broadening from tech-only to financials and industrials. |
Sector positioning at a glance.
Year-to-date price return of each sector ETF, shown with our current bias. Green = leaning in. Amber = balanced or watching. Red = light or short.
Computed daily from sector ETF closes.
Where rate cuts hit the real economy.
The yield curve has un-inverted, credit spreads are tight, and homebuilders are doing fine. Existing home sales stay frozen until mortgage rates break below 6%.
| Signal | Indicator | Latest | Stance | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
30Y Mortgage Rate | — | Neutral | Easing slowly. Spreads still wide. Below 6% would unstick the market. | |
Home Prices (CS) | — | Neutral | Stable. Supply-constrained markets holding. Sun Belt offsetting coastal softness. | |
Existing Home Sales | — | Defensive | Frozen. Lock-in effect persists. Volume only unlocks below 5.5% mortgages. | |
New Home Sales | — | Constructive | Strong. Builder rate buy-downs working. Homebuilders remain a sector of interest. | |
Yield Curve (10Y–2Y) | — | Constructive | Normalizing. Curve un-inverted. Historical recession signal fading. | |
High Yield Spreads | — | Constructive | Sanguine. No stress in credit markets. Risk appetite intact. |
Cross-currents the U.S. has to swim through.
Dollar softening helps. China softening hurts. Geopolitics priced but binary. Gold doing what it always does when the world feels uncertain.
| Signal | Indicator | Latest | Stance | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Dollar Index | — | Neutral | Softening. Helpful for U.S. multinationals and emerging markets. Watch closely. | |
China GDP Growth | — | Defensive | Headwind. Property drag persists. Stimulus piecemeal. Materials and luxury exposed. | |
European Equities | — | Neutral | Mixed. Cheap valuations, weak growth. Stock-picker's market, not an index trade. | |
Geopolitical Risk | Elevated | Neutral | Priced in but binary. Tail-risk hedges remain in place across the book. | |
WTI Crude Oil | — | Neutral | Stable. Demand soft, supply disciplined. Geopolitical premium baked in. | |
Gold | — | Constructive | Bid. Central-bank buying + de-dollarization theme. Modest allocation justified. |
What we're actually doing with the money.
Quality U.S. equities
Companies with pricing power. Financials benefiting from a steeper curve. Utilities tied to AI power demand. Select small-caps as rate-cut beneficiaries. Modest gold allocation.
Watching, not chasing
Mega-cap tech — still own it, trimming on strength. Healthcare — waiting for policy clarity. Real estate — selective, prefer industrial REITs. Emerging markets — watching the dollar.
Underweight zones
Consumer staples on stretched valuations. Long-duration Treasuries given a sticky long end. China-dependent materials. Levered equity narratives without earnings.
Disclosure. The Market Pulse reflects the proprietary, point-in-time views of Amilli Kapital Group, LLC. Indicator lights are interpretive — they represent our internal positioning bias, not predictions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not an offer to buy or sell any security and not personalized investment advice. Index levels and returns shown on this site are derived from Google Finance market data; everything else on this page is our own interpretation. We do not license a Bloomberg, Refinitiv, or FactSet feed. Where a figure is not available to us it is shown as an em dash rather than estimated.
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